Last night may have been the worst game of the season for a struggling Tyler Seguin. He finished the night with a -1, meaning he was on the ice for the only goal against, he only had 1 shot on goal, a 27% faceoff percentage, and a season low time on ice of 14:28. The whole second line was so bad that by the end of the game it was fully split apart. Safe to say the OT goal from Seguin last week did not get him going.
He Cannot Finish Right Now . . . Duh
Seguin’s “goals above expected” is -3.5 according to moneypuck.com. This puts him in the bottom 25 skaters in the entire league. That low of a goals above expected stat shows that he is getting shots on goal from high danger areas of the ice, mainly the slot or right in front of the net, but they are being stopped.
The main reason that Seguin has not been scoring from his high danger chances is a combination of not taking quality shots.
His shooting percentage so far this year is second lowest of his career at 7.4%. This stat definitely holds up to the eye test in my opinion. Even if you look at some of his better games like the Minnesota or Toronto games, he is getting lots of shots and chances, but the shots are either not elevated at all, or are right into the chest of the goaltender.
He is Not Adapting to His New Lack of Speed
Last night against the Caps I especially noticed how much slower Seguin has gotten since his injury. His back checking was just not there, and it felt like he could not get going on the rush through the neutral zone without getting caught from behind. Seguin is slower, that is just a fact of life, but he needs to learn how to still be productive without his speed. A player who is a great example of that is Alexander Ovechkin.
Ovi started his career as a quick power forward through and through. He would score amazing goals from his back but also was not afraid to lay a big hit on the forecheck. This style of hockey obviously takes its toll on your body over time. What Ovechkin did to avoid any fall off in his production was to change how he played. He became the best powerplay goal scorer ever, he has one of if not the best one timer ever, and he slunks around the crease and finds ways to get open on the backdoor.
This kind of adjustment that Ovi made is the same thing that Seguin needs to figure out if he wants to produce the same way he did in the past. It does not need to be in the same way that Ovi changed either. Another good example is Pavelski. He found his role in deflecting pucks in front of the net and has remained a fixture on the first line because of it.
No matter what it is, Seguin needs to find his new niche.
Wrap it up
Obviously, last night was an outlier for Seguin. He will continue to be a large part of this hockey team no matter what. However, if he wants to be back on the list as one of the Stars elite players, then he needs to find a new way to score.
