The Dallas Stars had a Horrible Weekend, Are they Cooked come Playoff Time?

This weekend's back-to-back left much to be desired, but is it predictive of failure come playoff time?

That was an incredibly disappointing weekend, and since I did not get a chance to voice my displeasure via my standard medium, you are being blessed with some written word. 

On a weekend when the Jets opened the door for the Stars to tie them up atop the Central Division standings by losing to Utah, Dallas instead laid not one but two eggs in less than 48 hours, losing to both the Penguins and the Wild. Beyond the obvious missed opportunity, it felt like the Stars finally suffered the consequences of their subpar play dating back to the Jets/Avalanch losses on March 14th and 16th. 

Since those two games, Dallas has relied on their offensive skill, coming in the form of timely goals from their top forwards (and Harley) and the best goaltending in the league. Jake Oettenger and Casey DeSmith have combined for a  .945 save percentage and had four games where they allowed one goal or less during the 10-game point streak. 

On paper, that combo was working, earning Dallas 17 of a possible 18 points following the overtime loss to the Avalanch, but if you’ve been watching or dug just a bit into statistics, you’ve seen through the mirage. 

During the Stars' 10-game point streak, Dallas was outshot by a total of 247 to 347; their total expected goals differential was -6.12, according to moneypuck.com, and only four of their 10 opponents currently hold a playoff spot. 

(Expected goals is a somewhat flawed advanced analytic in my opinion, so take that with a grain … or maybe a large rock of salt.)

Even if you put the stats aside, the team's intensity has felt off; this is especially evident on the forecheck (or lack thereof). It is why when the Stars are at their worst, it feels like their fourth line is at their best. It's not that the bottom forward group is better than the superstars on the roster; they are simply maintaining their aggression (which they have to do lest they be replaced) while the rest of the team is sitting back. 

So yes, you are not crazy. The Dallas Stars have not been playing as well as their recent record suggests, and this weekend proved that, but does it really matter how a team finishes the season once the playoffs start?

The Stars finished 2024 by winning 12 of their final 14 games, and in 2023, they were on a six-game victory streak heading into the postseason. Both of those years culminated in deep playoff runs that ultimately ended in the conference finals. 

In 2022, Dallas only won three of their final seven games in the regular season. After limping into the playoffs, they were ousted in the first round after Oettinger failed to drag the offense’s lifeless corps past the Flames for seven games. 

Definitely some correlation between end-of-season results and playoff performance for the Stars, but what about the most recent cup winners?

Both Florida and Vegas had a successful close to the regular season when they won the cup: five wins in the final six for Florida and five in the final seven for Vegas. However, in 2022, Colorado did not just limp into the postseason; they face-planted, losing five of their final six games. They followed that up with one of the most dominant postseason performances in history, going 16-4 in the postseason. 

To me, this shows that, in general, good teams in the playoffs finish the regular season strong, but not always, and we have seen just how fast momentum can flip in this game. 

Let me take you back to the closest Dallas has gotten to Lord Stanley in my lifetime. A crazy 2020 season culminated in the wildest playoff tournament the NHL has ever seen. Easily forgotten, the Stars played in three round-robin games before the mid-August tournament began. They lost all three. And they looked really bad. 

Granted, that continued into the first four games of a series against Calgary. That is, until some late third-period heroics from Joe Pavelski tied the game that was eventually won in overtime, but once the Stars got that one momentum switch, they were off on the most magical run we’ve seen from them in the past 20 years. 

So, be upset at the Stars for their performance this weekend. Point to the underlying stats from the point streak that show it’s been a long time coming. Be worried about how this team has played recently, but remember, a team that is good enough to go on a 10-game point streak while “playing bad” is just one play (or one player) away from getting back into form.